Well everybody, we did it. What an incredible night and a historic rebuke of Donald Trump and the Republican party. I felt confident it would be a good night, but things really exceeded my wildest expectations. Before anything else, I just want to say thank you. We’ve been putting pressure on this administration every single day, and that pressure doesn’t exist without you guys watching and backing the show. And really, we’re just getting started. I’m also excited to report that our Back the Bold candidates won across the board, so thank you to everyone who backed those efforts as well. Okay, now to the news.
Our top story: The Republican Party is at war with itself today. The White House blames Fox News and lazy candidates. The vice president blames the war he’s spent months selling to voters. And the MAGA faithful like Laura Loomer say America is over. Fingers are pointing in every direction. But for the first time, a lot of them are pointing at Donald Trump. As one senior Senate Republican put it, “Trump did this.” No kidding.
We’ll also get into Trump melting down as the results came in, a look at who walked away from the Republican Party, how Trump’s redistricting scheme backfired, and what Democrats say they’ll do with the power you just handed them.
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Let’s get to it.
1. GOP Civil War Erupts
You already know that last night was bigger than anyone predicted. Democrats took control of both chambers, and flipped seats in deep red territory that wasn’t even on the map a month ago.
Even Fox News couldn’t sugarcoat the loss:
Reactions were similar across the board. A senior Senate Republican official to Politico: “We are beyond candidate quality. It’s a bloodbath.” And then the blame game: “Trump did this.” A swing-state operative complained that nobody in the White House stopped the president from spending the fall on things voters didn’t care about. Case in point, the president’s final midterm speech that focused more on leaky pipes and grass than groceries and gas prices.
Fox News stood behind the president, reaching for the classic TDS line. Here’s Hannity last night.
“The hatred of this man is unprecedented.” Of course. There’s nothing to be done. The electorate is just so hateful. Hard not to see the irony in that one.
Trump’s advisors went for a different set of targets. Fox News, RINOs, the “lazy” candidates, many of whom Trump himself picked. The vice president had a little more self-awareness, taking to X to blame the Iran War for the crushing loss.
It’s the same war he’s spent the last six months trying to sell to the American people, but he clearly didn’t do a very good job. Even Nick Fuentes told his followers to vote for Democrats over the war.
Some skipped finger-pointing and went straight to total calamity. Here’s Laura Loomer.
“America is over. The communists and jihadists are going to open our borders.” Talk about a positive agenda.
Two more names on the loser list. Elon Musk, who put up more than 150 million dollars only to be humiliated in both Texas races. And Vance, who threw away any shred of principle he had left to defend Vivek Ramaswamy’s despicable ad, only to watch him lose in Ohio.
There were a lot of losers last night, and most of them are pointing at somebody else. But a few are finally pointing at the guy at the top. A former Republican legislator in Texas called it “an abject repudiation of MAGA, of Trump and of Trumpism.” A county GOP chair in Ohio says the party has to “repudiate Trump’s style.” And the Republican who just lost the governor’s race in Maine said “Trump’s going to be gone in two years.” For ten years you couldn’t get a Republican to say any of that out loud.
However they sort it out, one thing is for sure. Last night was a big win for this country.
2. Trump Melts Down
Act one, anger. Before races were even called, Trump was fuming at the one network that had his back.
He slammed Fox News for its coverage of Democrats and for going “AGAINST” him. Nonetheless, he was glued to their broadcast all night. Once it became clear things were going south, he got on the phone to complain some more.
Even as his party was getting slaughtered, Trump found a way to make it about himself and all the ways he’s been wronged. And that was the preview for act two: cope.
Here’s Trump around 10:00. “I wasn’t on the ballot, and if I was, we would’ve won in a landslide!” Even if this were true, it wouldn’t exactly be a good thing. A party that can’t win without Trump on the ticket isn’t a healthy party, and it’s certainly not one that could survive past 2028. But it’s not true. Republicans lost precisely because Trump was on the ballot. Not the man himself. But certainly his policies. That’s the thing about demanding absolute loyalty from a rubber-stamp Congress. If you’re a popular president, they can ride your coattails to victory. But if not, they go down with you.
And then there was act three: acceptance. Later in the night, he took interviews with the New York Times and Politico. Listen to his tone.
He’s not being totally honest when he says he doesn’t want to blame anyone. Around the same time, he was tweeting about how Greg Abbott lost in Texas because he became a RINO. But still, there was none of the usual Trump fire in either of the interviews he gave. He didn’t dispute the results. He even told both outlets that he was willing and ready to work with the Democrats and make deals. Trump doesn’t exactly deserve praise for accepting the results of a fair election, but for the sake of the country, I’ll take it.
But make no mistake. Trump didn’t suddenly mellow out overnight. What you heard in his voice was defeat. He can try to avoid the blame, but he can’t deny that last night was a historic disaster that not even the wildest conspiracy could explain. The sound and the fury may come back eventually. But the Congress that let him do whatever he wanted is gone for good. And he knows it.
3. Trump Coalition Collapses
We’ll start at the top. Trump recorded a pitiful 38 percent approval rating among the people who voted, the lowest election day number in almost 20 years. 43 percent said they voted to oppose him, while only 16 percent turned out to support him. 63 percent said going to war with Iran was a bad decision and 65 percent said his policies made the economy worse.
Then there were the demographics. Take a look at this chart from the New York Times.
Every group has a big blue arrow. Men moved 17 points to the left. Hispanic voters swung by 28. The country as a whole moved 15 points towards the Democrats.
But there’s one group I want to focus on in particular. Remember the young men that broke so decisively for Trump in 2024? The podcasts, the manosphere. Young men embracing Trump was one of the big stories of that election.
But it seems they’ve dropped Trump and the GOP just as fast. Last night, men from 18-29 swung 38 points towards Democrats. You heard that right: 38. Young guys didn’t become staunch Democrats overnight. But some of the most conservative among them felt so betrayed by the Trump administration that they voted blue.
Case in point, Nick Fuentes. We mentioned earlier that he told his followers to vote for Democrats. This guy is as far right as you can get, but even he realizes that nothing about this administration is America first.
A majority of voters still had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, so it’s safe to say that this was more of a loss for Republicans than a victory for Democrats. But the fact remains that they’ve managed to shatter the coalition that seemed so formidable just two years ago. Now they just have to build their own.
4. Rigged Maps Backfire
Last summer, Trump told Texas to redraw its House districts mid-decade to lock in the Republican majority. Texas Republicans did what they were told.
That kicked off a redistricting war across the country. Red states led the charge. Republicans redrew maps in seven states and created 15 new seats Trump would have carried easily in 2024. The point was to create a buffer.
On election night, that buffer self-imploded. To manufacture new seats, Republicans not only had to splinter support for the Democrats but also spread their own voters thin. Safe districts became merely favorable ones. That math works when the political environment doesn’t shift dramatically. But when conservative and independent voters soured on Trump, those slimmer margins collapsed.
As the head of the University of Florida’s election lab explained, “2024 was the high-water mark for Republicans. They drank the echo chamber Kool-Aid and thought it was a permanent shift, not temporary.”
That Kool-Aid proved to be deadly. As of now, Democrats are winning at least 11 of the 15 districts Republicans redrew to elect their candidates.
The worst hit state? Texas. By the Texas Tribune’s count, Republicans lost four of the five seats the new map was built to flip. They also lost two seats they already held. Florida witnessed a similar trend. Republicans targeted four Democratic seats and didn’t win a single one.
Political nerds have a name for this: a dummymander. That’s a gerrymander so greedy it loses you seats.
But there’s a broader point to be made. And Mary Ellen Klas, a politics columnist for Bloomberg, put it best. She said, “Imagine what the landscape would have looked like if Trump put his political capital into a more popular agenda instead of new maps.” That’s just it. Trump didn’t even try to win over voters with sound policy and messaging. Instead, he doubled down on a losing agenda. And he tried to rig the map to pave over his collapsing support.
Last night, voters let him hear their frustrations anyway.
5. Dems Come for Trump World
For the past couple of months, we’ve talked about the Democrats’ gameplan should they win the House. Where they might block the president’s agenda. And who they might target with investigations. Now they’ve resoundingly taken control of both chambers. They can set their plan into motion. But what is the plan exactly?
Last night, Fox News anchor Bret Baier found out from a two-word tweet.
“Lawyer Up.” That’s Representative Robert Garcia’s simple message to anyone who cozied up to this administration for their own personal gain. That’s no small task. Because there’s a long list on the agenda. As Garcia once admitted, “There’s so much corruption and grift that it’s going to take the entire House on the Democratic side to do an investigation properly.”
So, where are they going to start? The Times gained access to the plan. It reports Garcia will chair the House Oversight Committee. Jamie Raskin, the House Judiciary. And Sheldon Whitehouse, the Senate Judiciary. Those committees have already hired dozens of lawyers. And they’re going to start by investigating the president’s crypto dealings. His Qatar jet. Kushner’s Gulf money. Don Jr.’s financial firm. And the one leadership is lining up behind: Secretary Hegseth’s impeachment.
Now, I know everybody’s thinking about it. So let’s address the elephant in the room. What about President Trump himself? The mob boss behind most of the shady deals and corruption. Leader Jeffries says they “haven’t ruled anything out,” but the caucus isn’t looking to pursue a third impeachment. At least for right now.
Exit polls say the country is split on the issue. And Democrats don’t want to bite off more than they can chew. Senator Cory Booker warned that making the investigation all about Trump would cost them “this moment in history.” Jim Himes echoed that message. He worried that Democrats are being asked to “audition for a role in which the party has failed.”
That might leave some people disappointed. But Democrats have to stay honest about what last night meant. Voters gave them a mandate that’s clear but limited. Check the president. And hold his inner circle accountable. That’s the job.
Garcia told the administration to lawyer up. Now Democrats have to show up.
Some other stories that caught my eye:
The Trump administration is negotiating a military pact with Venezuela that could open the door to a long-term U.S. troop presence there. U.S. officials told The New York Times on Tuesday that the State Department is leading talks on a status of forces agreement, or SOFA. That’s a striking turn for a country the U.S. attacked just ten months ago. Troop numbers and locations would be worked out in later agreements. The State Department says it has negotiated similar pacts with more than 100 countries. It says they provide “a clear, predictable legal framework” for things like training, exercises and humanitarian assistance. A senior official said any talk of U.S. bases was “way, way down the road.” Trump put it differently in a Washington speech on Monday. He referred to “our conquest of Venezuela.” U.S. forces seized Nicolás Maduro in a January raid that killed scores of people. Since then, interim leader Delcy Rodríguez has worked closely with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump has backed her fully and says Venezuela isn’t ready for elections. Opposition leader María Corina Machado returned from exile in late October and wants a presidential vote by July.
President Trump announced on Fox News that the U.S. will stop giving Israel billions of dollars in annual military aid., which would stop by the end of 2026. Trump justified his decision by arguing the roughly $4 billion payment had become “almost too easy a target” for the left. He added that he and Netanyahu “have been talking, and we’ve agreed.” Netanyahu had not commented as of Tuesday evening. His chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, said Israel’s defense establishment learned of the shift “through the media, at the same time as the Israeli public.” The current deal, signed by President Obama in 2016, provides $3.8 billion a year and runs through 2028. An abrupt cutoff would be nearly impossible. Congress will also have a big say. Most of the money comes back to U.S. defense contractors, because Israel has to spend it on American weapons. Netanyahu has pushed for this himself. He told The Economist in January that he wanted to “taper off” U.S. aid over the next ten years.
