Hey everybody. Welcome back. Thanks for being here. Happy Election Day!
Our top story today. Yesterday afternoon, with Republicans bracing to lose one or both chambers of Congress, Donald Trump’s final public event before the vote was a 53-minute speech about the Reflecting Pool. He held up photos. He blamed the vandals again, the ones his own Justice Department admitted never existed. And his closest surrogates out on the trail didn’t do much better. Two years of total control and nobody can tell you what they did with it. All they can do is deflect, distract, and beg for another chance.
We’ll also get into the unlikely group of House Republicans fighting for their seats tonight, the right-wing influencers already running the stolen election playbook, the DOJ sending election monitors to the polls in mostly blue counties, and the final poll that reads like an autopsy of the Trump coalition.
So do me a favor. Like this video, share it with someone who needs to see it, and subscribe so you never miss an episode.
Let’s get to it.
1. Trump Blows Final Pitch
Yesterday afternoon, Trump spoke in front of the Reflecting Pool that’s been giving him so much trouble over the past year. The stakes should have been pretty high. I mean, this is a Republican president staring down a historic blue wave. But Trump clearly wasn’t feeling the urgency. Have a listen.
Instead of acknowledging the concerns of ordinary Americans or explaining how the GOP would address them if they held the majority, Trump became absorbed by the details of his botched pool renovation.
He held up photos. He talked about rusted pipes and replacement joints. He went on a tangent about different types of grass and their merits. And of course, he repeated the same old lies about how knife-wielding vandals sabotaged the renovation. Let me remind you: his own DOJ admitted that it was his hand-picked contractor who botched the job.
We didn’t cherry pick that clip. He genuinely spent most of the 53 minutes talking about Washington renovations. It’s almost like he’s nostalgic for his builder days. Maybe being president isn’t so fun when 70% of the country can’t stand you.
Eventually he did get to the election, but his pitch was little more than a complaint. He told the press: “For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot.” A strong shot at what, exactly? Because he certainly wasn’t doing much to win voters over.
But his top operatives couldn’t come up with much better. Listen to Scott Presler, MAGA’s top guy on voter turnout.
Let me translate that for you. He’s saying he knows Republicans in Congress have done nothing but drive up costs and allow the President to do whatever he pleases. But he wants you to believe that the next two years would be completely different. Can’t see many people falling for that one.
If you weren’t convinced, let’s round out the clown show with Stephen Miller.
Just to be clear, Stephen, Trump didn’t face jail time for the American people. He faced jail time for the consequences of his own actions. That aside, it’s not much of a pitch at all. We vote for politicians based on what they can do for us, not what we owe them. After all the things he’s done to drive up prices, Trump owes the American people, not the other way around.
You’ll hear all sorts of desperate pleas today. You’ll hear scary stories about all the horrible things the Democrats are going to do, and wild claims about how a president obsessed with remodeling has somehow saved the country. But you will never hear a coherent plan for making your life better.
2. MAGA Loyalists In Trouble
It’s not just battleground Republicans fighting for their seats tonight. MAGA faithful who have built their careers entirely on Trump are also on the chopping block.
Look at who’s on the list. Scott Perry, who tried to get Republicans to throw out the 2020 election. Derrick Van Orden, who was at the Capitol on January 6th. Anna Paulina Luna, who’s spent the year threatening to shut down the government over the SAVE Act. Every one of them sits in a district Trump won comfortably. And every one of them is either behind or in a coin flip today. The party is pouring millions into seats it never thought it’d have to defend.
These aren’t moderates who hedged their bets or kept a respectful distance from Trump. These are people who won their seats going all in on MAGA, and spent their time in the house as Trump cheerleaders. When these candidates are in trouble, it’s not just because the voters who swung towards Trump in 2024 changed their mind. It’s because the true believers, the ones with Trump since he came down the escalator, have started hanging up their red hats.
Any seat the GOP loses is a win for the country. But it’s especially important to send this type of lawmaker packing. Congressional dysfunction is a big reason our politics are so ugly right now. And a lot of that dysfunction comes from MAGA lawmakers who only care about sticking it to the libs and showing their undying loyalty to MAGA.
Their constituents are sick of the same old act. They want lawmakers, not cheerleaders. That’s great news for our legislature, and great news for the country.
3. MAGA Spins Glitch Into Fraud
Here’s what happened. Polls opened at 6 a.m. in Westchester County, New York, and some ballot scanners weren’t working. The county executive said he didn’t know when the issue would be fixed, but the state Board of Elections stepped in with emergency procedures. It told voters to stay in line and fill out a paper ballot, which will go into a secure box and get counted the old-fashioned way.
The candidates stayed calm. Republican Mike Lawler told voters that every ballot will be counted, and they should stay in line. His opponent praised the board for working in a bipartisan manner. On the state level, everyone was calm.
Unfortunately, for much of MAGA, old habits die hard. Here’s Stephen Miller’s wife.
“This is how the Left steals elections. Mike Lawler’s competitive district and they are turning away voters.” Nobody was turned away. The congressman she’s defending said so.
And here’s our favorite whack job Laura Loomer. “Democrats are already trying to steal the election in New York today. What are the odds the ballot machines in Westchester County aren’t working? Democrats only know how to cheat.”
These are just two examples. As you can imagine, things have quickly spun out of control on social media. All of the usual MAGA suspects are pointing at Westchester and saying see, we told you so!
Look, our elections are millions of people and tens of thousands of machines all moving at once. There are going to be hiccups. That’s why there are people and procedures in place to handle them without putting votes at risk. But the influencers who’ve built their entire brand on voter fraud will pounce at every opportunity and cry conspiracy. It’s the same playbook every time. Make something out of nothing and create as much chaos as possible. So don’t fall for it. Keep calm, vote, and try to keep Laura Loomer off your timeline.
4. DOJ Floods Blue Counties
This morning, the DOJ released a statement that its “most important mission” is to ensure election integrity and protect the right to vote. As part of that mission, it would deploy roughly a thousand election monitors in 126 jurisdictions across all 50 states. For reference, the DOJ only sent 289 monitors in the 2022 midterms.
The Assistant Attorney General for the Civil Rights Division, Harmeet Dhillon, called it “the largest monitoring effort in DOJ history.” She also said it would be done “in an assertive and nondiscriminatory manner.” Assertive? I don’t doubt that’s her intention. But nondiscriminatory? Now that’s just a load of crap.
We ran the numbers on the 126 jurisdictions that were listed. In 2024, Harris won 70 of them by ten points or more. Those are blue places by any definition. Another 32 were decided by less than ten points. Put together, 81 percent of the places targeted by DOJ monitors today are blue or purple. Only 19 percent are solidly red.
Another way to see it? Harris won 93 of the 126 outright. That’s nearly three out of four.
Most of this list is new. 77 of these places were not monitored either in 2022 or 2024. And more than half of those new additions have at least one of three things in common. They allow same-day registration. They use ranked-choice voting. Or they let candidates run on more than one party line. The president has called out each for enabling fraud.
And look, election monitors aren’t new. The department has sent them under every president since 1965, making sure voters aren’t blocked or intimidated. But we all know this year is different. The question is whether these monitors are really there to protect voters or to scare them off.
Last month, Dhillon posted that the monitors would be the “eyes and ears for any violations, and may take legal action afterwards.” But we’ve seen what “legal action” means to this DOJ. It has demanded ballots be set aside. It has threatened to sue for access to state voter rolls. And it has threatened to prosecute election officials.
On Sunday, a federal judge ordered the department to ensure its monitors are clerical and administrative staff with no law enforcement authority. That means they will introduce themselves to election officials, carry employment credentials, and not interfere with voters.
So if you’re voting today, none of this changes anything for you. Federal monitors can’t stop you, question you or turn you away. If anyone tries, report it, starting with your local election officials. This administration wants you to think twice about showing up. Don’t give them that.
5. Trump Voters Jump Ship
Politico released its final poll before the midterms. It asked Americans, split by their vote in 2024, which party they intend to vote for in this year’s midterms. And the results aren’t encouraging for Trump and the MAGA movement.
Just under 10 percent of Trump voters plan to vote Democrat. Another 12 percent are either going to vote for an independent candidate, or not vote at all. That means, the Republicans have lost just under a quarter of the Trump vote in two years.
So where is the GOP bleeding the most? Politico points to two groups. Among Trump voters in their twenties, the share who say they’re certain to vote at all dropped from 50 percent to 38. Among Hispanic Trump voters, the share who still call themselves MAGA fell from 56 percent last year to 37 percent today. That’s 19 points gone in a year.
Some Republicans see the writing on the wall. A Florida operative said, “We forgot that we’re a populist party” and that it has gone from scrappy to “almost elitist.” That’s a nice way of saying the GOP took power and used it to build a ballroom. Trump’s former Arizona party chair had her own thoughts, which I’ll have to clean up for the air. “The coalition we built under Trump doesn’t… exist anymore.”
Nowhere is that clearer than on the Senate map. The New York Times charted how the polls have moved since 2024. That year, Trump won Kansas, Texas, Alaska, Ohio and Iowa, each by double digits. Those states had been the heart of the MAGA coalition. Today, Democrats hold a narrow lead in all five, where races will come down to the wire tonight.
Here’s the bottom line. For months, polls have pointed in the same direction. Trump is losing support. MAGA is sucking wind. And the GOP is paying for it. But polls don’t send a concrete message. Votes do. And you have until tonight to cast yours.
Some other stories that caught my eye:
Many of the low-propensity voters who put Trump back in office are skipping today’s election. The Atlantic spoke with voters across Arizona who have given up on voting altogether. Andrew Leyva, a blinds installer in Scottsdale, voted for Trump every time he was on the ballot. He now pays nearly twice as much for gas and doesn’t think he’ll ever vote again. Republican consultant Lorna Romero Ferguson says losing reliable partisans turns Election Day into “a crapshoot.” That’s a bigger problem for Republicans. In 2024, Trump won voters who had skipped the previous two presidential elections, 55 percent to 41 percent. According to Pew, a quarter of eligible voters sat out all three of the last presidential races. In close races like Arizona’s, the people who stay home could decide who controls Congress.
More than half of active-duty troops say politics is driving them out of the military. Nearly half point to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. That’s according to a poll by Common Defense, a progressive veterans group, which surveyed service members in September and released the results last month. Fifty-three percent of active-duty respondents said they want to leave because their service has become too politicized. Another 45 percent said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s policy changes have them thinking about leaving early. Two-thirds believe recent military decisions are being made for political gain, not mission readiness. Common Defense executive director Jose Vasquez, an Army veteran, called it “a readiness crisis.” Half of the troops surveyed disapproved of Trump as commander in chief. Hegseth’s approval stood at 45 percent, while their own commanders fared better at 56 percent.
