As someone who has run for office many times, I am always cautious about over-reading the polls more than a month before election day. But, try as hard as I might to look at these numbers with a critical eye, there’s no denying that Democrats are surging right now and are positioned to have one of the best Election Days in recent memory.
Their advantage holds across all types of political environments. Political handicappers at the Cook Political Report, who get to see private polling from both parties, rate nine of the most competitive Senate races as lean D/R or tossups, with the GOP on defense for seven of them.
And in the House, Democrats hold a similar advantage and are favorites to take back the chamber.
And while having the experts on your side is great, there’s another way to tell that the GOP is scared. Look at where they are spending their campaign dollars and you’ll know exactly what they believe is happening on the ground.
If you’re looking for the neon, flashing sign, here it is: two GOP candidates for Senate put out either a press release or ad opposing Trump’s war with Iran in the last two weeks.
Ashley Hinson, running for Iowa’s open Senate seat, cut a spot standing in a grocery store aisle. “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” she says.
Mike Rogers, running for Senate in Michigan, said in his ad, “The war in Iran needs to end to bring costs down.”
The GOP’s own hand-picked Senate recruits, on the ballot this November, are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in TV airtime to put daylight between themselves and Donald Trump’s war.
There’s a reason the Iran War and higher prices are hurting the GOP so badly. Because Trump made two promises in 2024 that helped deliver him the election. Trump promised no new wars and to bring the cost of living down starting day one.
Instead, he started a war of choice with Iran with no plan to end it. He also insisted on tariffs, in defiance of most modern economists, that helped drive prices on most everyday items up instead of down.
While most people in DC don’t hold a high opinion of everyday Americans, there’s something that always seems to sneak up on the Beltway around election time.
Voters notice. They always do, eventually.
There’s more polling than I could possibly include that shows voters have, indeed, noticed, but one sticks out to me. A new Echelon Insights poll found that only 34 percent of Republicans now call themselves primarily supporters of Donald Trump, down from 59 percent in January of last year. 56 percent now say they’re supporters of the Republican Party first. That number completely flipped in twenty months.
That isn’t to say that these people are going to vote for Democrats in November. But it does mean the Trump cult of personality is cracking from the inside.
Conservative radio host Steve Deace put it even more bluntly in a now-viral tweet about Iowa from GOP sources on the ground: “if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.” The next day, on his show, Deace further lamented the situation starting, “the environment is this bad in my home state of Iowa, where Trump has been the most popular political figure over the last decade, folks.”
Reputable public polls show Democratic challengers leading in both the Iowa Senate and governor’s races by real margins.
And then there’s Texas. Polling consistently Democrat James Talarico leading Ken Paxton for Senate and Gina Hinojosa within three points of incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. Texas has been a heartbreaker for Democrats in recent cycles, but poll after poll shows these races more favorable to Talarico and Hinojosa than ever imagined.
In Georgia, incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff holds such a commanding lead that most Republicans have written off the race. The same story is true of former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper who is running to fill an open seat in North Carolina. Two historically red states are virtually off the map in September. Stunning.
But it isn’t just specific races where Democrats are overperforming.
The generic congressional ballot, the data point most professionals use to measure the national mood, has Democrats up an average of about nine points nationally. While the Republican push for mid-decade redistricting created structural barriers for Democrats in the House, a generic ballot of nearly double-digits would be more than enough for Democrats to take back the House with a comfortable majority.
But (and there’s always a but) I want to give you the whole picture, because these columns only mean something if I do. Polling is not destiny. I’ve watched races tighten in October after looking finished in September, some of mine included. I’ve watched a sure thing evaporate because a turnout model was wrong, or a late story broke badly, or a campaign got too comfortable.
I am not telling anyone in the broader pro-democracy coalition to relax. Nothing here should take a single person’s foot off the gas between now and November.
But with that caveat firmly in place, I feel comfortable saying that the data and Republicans’ actions all point the same direction. This is shaping up to be a wave election. And Trump built it himself, one broken promise at a time.
In the ocean, real waves don’t happen suddenly or accidentally. They build a long way out before anyone standing on the shore even notices the water pulling back. That is what you’re looking at right now. The water is receding on Republicans.
Don’t wait for the wave itself to grab your board.
Surfs up!
— Adam
I sure hope you're right. I just worry about what other things "they" have up their sleeves to prevent this from happening.
If ever we needed an anti-Republican wave, it's now. I'm not advocating for conservative or liberal ideals...just a return to normal order, where we treat our allies with dignity and deal with our enemies appropriate to their behavior. I'm looking for honesty and justice from our government. Unfortunately, the Republican Party has earned America's disgust, as well as their distrust and mistrust. I'm hoping for a return to the day when compromise was possible.