Hey everyone. Welcome back. Thank you for being here today.
We start by looking at your wallet. More specifically, how far you’re having to stretch it these days. In breaking news this morning, the government reported that inflation has climbed to its highest point in three years, and the biggest reason is the war with Iran. You are feeling it at the pump, you are feeling it at the grocery store. And the same people who keep promising to bring your costs down are also eyeing the retirement checks you have paid into your whole life.
We’ll also get into U.S. and Iran strikes overnight. Republicans passing a 70 billion dollar ICE bill the same day we learn the agency is detaining babies. Epstein’s assistant telling Congress she set up his calls with Trump. And Nancy Mace losing big in South Carolina and blaming Epstein.
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1. Inflation Hits a Three-Year High — and Republicans Are Eyeing Your Social Security
The Labor Department reported that consumer prices in May were up 4.2 percent from a year ago. That is the steepest reading since early 2023. Back in January, inflation was running at 2.4 percent. It has been climbing ever since.
The driver is energy. Gas prices alone are up about 40 percent over the past year, and economists put most of last month’s jump on the war with Iran and the oil it has knocked offline.
With everyday Americans hurting more each day and the midterms around the corner, you’d think the people in charge would be racing to bring those prices down - if for no other reason than pure self-interest. Instead, they’re eyeing what’s left.
Yesterday we talked about Speaker Mike Johnson saying that programs like Social Security and Medicare “have to be adjusted and fixed,” and that his party has a plan to do it next year.
When a reporter tried to ask one House Republican what that plan actually is, watch what happened:
That is Congressman Rob Wittman of Virginia, pretending to take a phone call instead of answering a question about cutting Social Security. The screen on his phone stayed visible the whole time. There was nobody on the line.
And the timing could not be sharper, because this week the program’s trustees released their annual report. It moved the date Social Security’s retirement fund runs dry closer by a full year, to 2032. Without action from Congress, benefits would eventually be cut by roughly 17 percent.
The report also ties part of that benefit cut to the Republican tax law last year that sent most of its cash to the top and is now draining money out of the fund. Add the tariffs and the war, and the picture only gets worse.
So we’ve got prices climbing on one end, and the people who promised to make things more affordable going after your retirement on the other. Not the tax cuts. Not the war. Your benefits.
When the bill comes due, it never seems to land on the people who ran it up.
2. U.S. Strikes Iran Overnight as Trump Warns Tehran Will "Pay the Price”
Early Wednesday, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran. This came after President Trump accused Iran of shooting down the Army Apache helicopter we talked about yesterday.
Central Command says American forces hit Iranian air defenses and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran fired back, launching missiles and drones at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. Most seem to have been intercepted. Jordan says it shot down five incoming missiles itself.
The President then wrote on Truth Social that Iran had taken too long to make a deal and would now “have to pay the price.” He didn’t elaborate any further with a timeline on when said price would be paid.
So a few days ago this same President was telling reporters a peace deal could be two or three days away. Now we’re trading fire again across a region packed with American troops.
And if you feel like you’ve heard “a deal is almost done” before, you have. CNN actually went back and counted. Since he announced the ceasefire, Trump has claimed a deal was right around the corner at least 38 times. There was even a stretch where he set a hard deadline for Iran and then backed off it five times in a single month.
The back-and-forth pattern is repeating itself almost every week. Trump says a deal with Iran is mere days away, the conflict picks back up, and then later on he says a deal is days away again.
And just as we were preparing this show, Trump announced more strikes for later today — while also saying a deal is close. So we’ll keep watching what actually happens on the ground, because that’s the only thing worth trusting right now.
3. ICE Gets $70 Billion as New Report Shows It's Detaining Babies
On Tuesday, the House passed a roughly 70 billion dollar bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol through the end of Trump’s term. They call it the Secure America Act. The vote was 214 to 212. It already cleared the Senate, and it now heads to the President’s desk for his signature.
Trump’s border czar was clear about what that money buys:
But let’s not let this conversation stick to the big numbers that are easy to gloss over. A pretty controversial report has just landed alongside the bill passage. Using federal data, the Marshall Project and MS NOW found that ICE has detained at least 500 babies and toddlers since Trump took office. On an average day, about 25 children aged three or younger are in custody.
And these are kids that suffer consequences from their detention by ICE. A two-year-old stopped eating for almost two weeks after he was taken from his father, for example.
Let’s be clear: the President’s immigration czar made perfectly plain what these new funds are for. More targeting, more arrests. That’s what this bill allows and what we should expect to see, even if it means more babies and toddlers ripped from their families.
4. Epstein Assistant Says She Set up Calls Between Epstein and Trump
Yesterday, the House Oversight Committee questioned Jeffery Epstein’s longtime assistant Lesley Groff behind closed doors. According to people in the room, here is what she said:
Groff’s testimony is the latest in a long line for the committee. One after another, the people who were closest to Epstein answer the same questions, and one after another, his friendship with Donald Trump gets clearer.
And remember how this fight started. For more than a year, Trump’s Justice Department promised the Epstein files, then slow-walked them, then held them back. They went from one of the President’s top campaign promises to the thing his administration is fighting the hardest to bury.
The documents with allegations about Trump came out only after a bipartisan subpoena and months of public pressure. His former attorney general, Pam Bondi, sat in front of this same committee and would not answer the committee’s questions about the President’s role. Millions of pages are still being kept from the public today.
The President can keep telling us it was nothing, but the mounting evidence is impossible to ignore.
5. Nancy Mace Finishes 5th in SC Gov Primary, Blames Epstein Vote Backlash for Loss
Last night, Congresswoman Nancy Mace finished dead last among the names that counted. She lost her own home county and her own district. To see how she got here, you have to rewind.
I knew Nancy back when we overlapped in the House. She came in in 2021, and right after January 6th she put the blame for that day squarely on Donald Trump. Back then she was part of what you might call the normal wing of the conference.
But then, her tone shifted. She remade herself into a pro-Trump culture warrior, asking the President for his endorsement again and again. The one place she broke with Trump, the place that cost her, was demanding the Epstein files come out. Mace is a survivor herself. She framed the fight that way, saying that as a survivor of a broken system she would always go after justice.
Because of this stand, Trump endorsed her opponent and praised her as the one who, in his words, “never wavered”. And last night, the voters finished the job.
You can give Donald Trump everything, campaign for him, and abandon your principles to win his approval. But if you cross him one time, none of it counts. That’s the Republican party right now. And everyone in it watching her tonight knows exactly what it means for them.
Some other stories that caught my eye:
Maine Democrats on Tuesday nominated Graham Platner for the U.S. Senate. This sets up a high-stakes November showdown with Republican Sen. Susan Collins in one of the most closely watched races of the midterms. Platner, a Marine veteran and political outsider, won despite weeks of headlines about past offensive comments, allegations about his conduct with ex-girlfriends, and scrutiny over a Nazi-like tattoo he says he later covered up. His campaign has argued that voters are focused on issues like healthcare and the economy, not his past mistakes, and Platner has said he has taken responsibility for his actions. The race is critical for Democrats’ hopes of regaining Senate control, and Collins remains one of the few Republican senators with a history of winning crossover support in a politically divided state. Platner’s victory also raises a larger question about whether voters in both parties are becoming more willing to overlook personal controversies if they believe a candidate can deliver politically.
Republican Steve Hilton has secured a spot in California’s gubernatorial general election this November after narrowly finishing ahead of billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer. Hilton, the Trump-backed candidate and a former Fox News host and adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, will now face Democrat Xavier Becerra in November. Hilton has framed his campaign around frustration with one-party rule in Sacramento, while Becerra argues Democratic leadership is needed to protect California’s economy and social policies. The result means voters in deep-blue California will see a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican contest rather than an all-Democratic general election, something that has happened several times. Republicans have not won a California gubernatorial election since 2006.
