Virginia: Vote YES Tomorrow
Virginia's Redistricting Referendum and Why I'm Passionately In Support
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Tomorrow, April 21st, Virginians vote on whether to approve a new congressional map that would shift the state’s delegation from a 6-5 Democratic advantage to 10-1. That’s a big swing, and I understand why some people are uncomfortable with it — including some Democrats. So let me tell you where I’m coming from, because I’ve got skin in this game that most commentators don’t.
I’ve Been on the Other End of This
In 2012, I was a sitting Republican member of Congress. And I was gerrymandered. My district was redrawn so that I’d be sharing territory with another Republican incumbent — a classic “double-bunk” designed to force one of us out. It was political targeting dressed up as cartography. I survived. I won.
Then in 2022, they did it again. Even though I wasn’t planning to run, they still drew a map that targeted me. Why? Because that’s what partisan redistricting is. It’s not about communities. It’s not about fairness. It’s about power. And both parties have played this game.
I’m not going to stand up here and pretend Democrats have clean hands on redistricting. They don’t. Neither do Republicans. I lived it personally — twice. So when I say Virginia should vote YES tomorrow, understand that I’m not speaking from blind partisanship. I’m speaking from experience.
But This Is Different
What’s happening right now nationally isn’t normal redistricting. This isn’t the routine post-census line-drawing that happens every ten years. This is something we haven’t seen in modern American political history — a sitting president actively directing states to redraw their maps mid-decade, between censuses, for the explicit purpose of tilting a federal election.
Texas went first. At Trump’s personal urging, the Texas legislature redrew its congressional map in the summer of 2025 to flip as many as five seats toward Republicans. Not because the census required it. Not because a court ordered it. But because Trump wanted to lock in the House majority before the 2026 midterms, and Texas Republicans complied.
Missouri and North Carolina followed. Each redrew their maps to pick up an additional Republican seat.
Let’s be honest about what this is. Texas, Missouri, and other states enacted new district maps in 2025 not to reflect population changes, but to engineer electoral outcomes. Trump urged GOP-led states to gerrymander their U.S. House districts ahead of the midterms to create more winnable seats for Republicans — an extraordinary intrusion of the federal executive into the constitutional authority of state legislatures. The party that used to champion states’ rights had no problem with the president calling state legislators to the White House and threatening their political futures if they didn’t bend the maps to his will.
And here’s the core of it: they did this because they know they’re going to lose. The party that controls the White House almost always loses House seats in the midterms. Republicans are sitting on a razor-thin majority. Their polling is weak. Their agenda is unpopular. They can’t win a fair fight in 2026, so they’re trying to rig the board before the game starts. Mid-cycle redistricting is the tell. You don’t cheat at cards when you have a strong hand.
The States Keeping Score
Let’s walk through where things stand.
Republicans: Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina all enacted new maps, which in total could net Republicans as many as seven seats. Florida’s Republican-led legislature is moving toward redistricting as well, potentially targeting additional Democratic-held seats.
Democrats: California voters overwhelmingly approved a map for congressional districts that could help Democrats win five more seats in the U.S. House. A sixth seat in Utah seems likely to move toward Democrats due to a court-ordered map. And Virginia — tomorrow’s vote — could flip as many as four more seats.
Even with all of that, Republicans are still ahead in the fight. The math matters. If Democrats don’t fully respond in every state where they can, the gerrymander works. Republicans net seats.
A Profile in Courage: Indiana
Before I go further, I want to acknowledge something that doesn’t get enough credit.
Indiana said no.
The Republican-dominated Indiana Senate voted 31-19 to reject a redrawing of the state’s congressional maps. Twenty-one Republicans joined all 10 Democratic senators in blocking the redistricting plan. This was after months of direct pressure from the President. After Trump threatened primary challengers. After JD Vance flew to Indianapolis to lobby reluctant senators in person. After state legislators and their families received pipe bomb threats and swatting attacks.
They still said no.
Sen. Sue Glick, a Republican from LaGrange, was among those voting against the new maps and said the pressure and threats from Washington backfired: “You have to know Hoosiers,” she said. “We can’t be bullied.”
Republican Sen. Mike Bohacek put it plainly: “To them, it feels like we’re trying to rig the system and steal and using other states’ bad behavior as the excuse. That’s just not how folks in Indiana are.”
That’s what principled conservatism actually looks like. Those Indiana Republicans deserve enormous credit. They stood up to their own president, accepted the political cost, and did the right thing for their constituents and for the integrity of elections. They are the exception that proves the rule. Most Republican-led states didn’t show that kind of backbone.
Why Virginia Needs to Go Big
Here’s my core argument, and it’s strategic as much as it is principled.
If Virginia passes a map that merely matches what Republicans gained in Texas and the other states, the message sent to the GOP is: this worked. Even if you fight fire with fire, you still set the fire. Texas redistricted, the Democrats scrambled to compensate, and everything came out roughly even — which means Republicans successfully broke the norm of once-a-decade redistricting at no cost to themselves.
That is unacceptable.
For this strategy to be deterred — truly deterred — the Democratic response has to exceed the Republican provocation. Virginia going 10-1 sends a message that can’t be ignored: if you weaponize mid-cycle redistricting, you will lose more than you gain. Only when the political calculus clearly turns against this tactic will we create the conditions for real, lasting reform.
I want independent redistricting commissions. I want the maps drawn by non-partisan mathematicians or citizens panels with no thumb on the scale. I believe deeply in that long-term goal. Virginia actually had a bipartisan commission — voters approved it in 2020 — and I respect that. But here’s the reality: you cannot commit to unilateral disarmament while your opponent is actively cheating. You cannot fight this fight with one hand tied behind your back.
The Virginia amendment is explicitly temporary. This is a temporary, emergency step — not a permanent change. The measure automatically sunsets after the 2030 census, at which point Virginia’s bipartisan redistricting process resumes in full. This isn’t about abandoning good government principles. It’s about surviving a crisis with enough leverage to ultimately establish the fair system we all want.
The Endgame
There is a version of American democracy where congressional district lines are drawn fairly — by independent commissions, by algorithmic processes, or by federal statute — so that politicians don’t pick their voters and every American’s vote carries roughly equal weight. That is the version I want to live in.
We will not get there by surrendering while the other side cheats.
Vote YES tomorrow. Make it hurt enough that it never happens again. Then, once we’ve established the deterrent, let’s have the real conversation about nationwide fair redistricting — with both parties at the table, because neither of them will have anything left to gain from the arms race.
That’s the deal I’d like to make. But we can’t make it from a position of weakness.
Vote YES.
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