The Lie That Holds MAGA Together
Trump must always be winning, because admitting one failure could call the whole project into question.
Note: video for paid subscribers follows article.
At RAF Mildenhall in eastern England, the president’s new airplane sat beneath the summer sky: a hulking Boeing 747 in dark blue, white, red and gold. Donald Trump had begun flying aboard the Qatari-donated jet only a week earlier. But for the trip from Turkey to Britain, he had abruptly returned to the older Air Force One before switching back to the new jet at Mildenhall.
The White House insists the jet is safe. It also says Trump will use the older Air Force One for roughly a month while the new one receives “additional upgrades and enhancements.” Aviation experts have questioned whether the hurriedly converted aircraft has the same missile-detection and countermeasure systems as the presidential fleet. Asked why the plane needed more work, Trump said that it would be “maxed out” and portrayed the delay as an improvement.
Trump has responded to setbacks this way throughout his second presidency. When an initiative goes badly, the administration doesn’t absorb the information and adjust. It just pretends everything is going smoothly.
The renovation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool offers a smaller but revealing example. Trump estimated it would cost $1.5 million; the price rose above $16 million. The water became green thanks to algae, and sections of the new coating began to peel away. Rather than acknowledge a botched project, Trump blamed vandals and described, without evidence, a 350-foot gash. Instead of explaining what went wrong, Trump found someone else to blame.
Trump started doing this on his first full day as president. You may recall the photographs showing broad white patches of empty ground on the National Mall during Trump’s inauguration, which contrasted sharply with Barack Obama’s crowd eight years earlier. Trump sent his press secretary, Sean Spicer, into the briefing room to declare that it had been “the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration—period.” Kellyanne Conway later supplied the phrase that defined the episode: “alternative facts.” Trump was teaching his administration and his supporters that they could make an obvious defeat disappear by repeating his version of events. Repeating the claim became an early test of loyalty to Trump.
Psychologists Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson describe this impulse in Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me). People often defend a bad decision because admitting the mistake would force them to see themselves as less competent or perceptive than they believed. People often respond by finding reasons why the decision was still justified. Partisans are especially good at this. They pick apart evidence that threatens their side and readily accept claims that make their side look good. Trump has made that habit part of what it means to support him.
Trump’s response to the 2020 election showed how far this habit could go. Before all the votes had been counted, Trump appeared at the White House and announced, “Frankly, we did win this election.” When the count showed that he had lost, Trump claimed the election had been stolen. More than 60 lawsuits failed. Republican election officials rejected his claims. His own administration called the election the most secure in American history. The stolen-election lie spared Trump the humiliation of losing and his followers the burden of admitting they had trusted a man who could lose.
The attack on the Capitol then became a protest by “patriots.” Defendants convicted of assaulting police officers became “hostages.” After returning to office, Trump pardoned more than 1,500 people charged in connection with January 6, including some convicted of violent crimes. Trump recast the failed effort to overturn the election as the persecution of his supporters. Once back in office, he used his pardon power to reward many of the people who had taken part. By then, abandoning the stolen-election story meant admitting that the lawsuits, the violence, the prison sentences and the pardons had all grown out of a lie.
In wartime, this refusal to acknowledge failure costs lives. On April 7, Trump said the United States had “already met and exceeded all military objectives” in Iran. He called the result “total and complete victory.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth praised a “capital-V military victory” that had rendered Iran ineffective for years. More than three months later, the fighting continues. As of July 20, at least 17 American service members had been killed since the war began on February 28, roughly 430 had been injured, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained, and regular gasoline averaged about $4 a gallon.
In the Air Force, I learned that an honest after-action review can keep the next crew alive. You identify the bad assumption, the missed warning and the equipment that failed, then correct the problem before someone faces the same danger again. Trump runs his administration in the opposite way. Officials who deliver bad news risk being treated as disloyal, while the underlying problem remains.
The response to the COVID vaccine shows that MAGA does not automatically celebrate Trump’s genuine successes. Operation Warp Speed was a genuine accomplishment of Trump’s first administration. Trump called the vaccines “one of the greatest achievements” and later told an audience he had received a booster. He was booed. By then, many of Trump’s supporters viewed opposition to mandates and public-health officials as part of their political identity. Trump could persuade his supporters to celebrate defeats he called victories, but he could not persuade them to accept one of his administration’s clearest achievements.
All administrations try to put setbacks in the best possible light. Trump goes further by rejecting unwelcome facts and refusing to change course. In an election, that habit turned a lie into political violence. In Iran, it has allowed the administration to keep describing a continuing war as a victory while American casualties mount.
The Qatari jet will spend a month undergoing the upgrades it apparently still needs. Engineers can inspect a plane, identify its vulnerabilities and repair them. Trump demands a different standard for his presidency: every defect must be denied, every warning blamed on an enemy and every failure renamed a triumph. The plane may eventually be fixed. The administration has shown no interest in making the same repairs to itself.
Further video discussion for paid subscribers: (I expand on how the White House and staff successfully spin failure to victory, or a draw. It’s an important tactic to recognize and call out.
