Well hey everybody! Welcome to today’s Kinzinger Report, it’s great to have you here.
Our top story today: three separate polls out this week put Trump’s approval at just 33 percent, a record low for his second term, matched only by the numbers right after January 6th. Even his own base is peeling off with Republican approval down 14 points since last April. The man who calls himself the greatest president in history is, in reality, struggling to stay popular with the people who voted for him twice.
We’ll also get into the G20 summit where Trump welcomed Russia back to the table and our allies walked away from the family photo; the Texans who packed a commissioner meeting to fight the closure of nearly a third of their county’s polling places; the USS Abraham Lincoln finally docking after 286 days at sea; and the growing pile of evidence that Pete Hegseth is fighting his culture war while losing the actual military.
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Let’s get to it.
1. Trump's Approval Craters to a Second-Term Low
Recently, Trump published a post ranking every American president, with himself in the “greatest” tier, ahead of Lincoln, ahead of Washington, and ahead of both FDR and Teddy. This week, the American people turned in their own assessment and it does not match his.
The latest poll from Reuters/Ipsos registers Trump’s approval at just 33 percent, and we’re not even halfway through his term. His archenemy Joe Biden, who was a “failure” according to that tier list, never sank that low. On the cost of living, the number one issue for voters this fall, 71 percent disapprove of Trump’s performance, including four in ten Republicans.
Even the base is crumbling. A UMass Amherst poll out this week found that Trump’s approval among Republicans has dropped by more than a dozen points since April of last year. Among those who voted for him in 2024, he’s down ten. And only a quarter of Americans think he’s handling the war with Iran well.
There’s even more bad news for the GOP. Forty-six percent of Democrats say they’re very enthusiastic about voting in November. For Republicans, it’s 31 percent. Independents prefer Democrats in Congress by 14 points, too. And for the first time in about a decade, voters say Democrats have better ideas on the economy.
Trump’s response is to call these surveys “Demoralization Operations.” The GOP doesn’t have a much better excuse. Here’s the chair of the RNC, asked about the numbers.
Biden again. We covered a similar deflection from DHS Secretary Mullin yesterday. Clearly the GOP is getting nostalgic for the days when complaining about the guy in office was all you had to do. But in 2026, when you’ve held all three branches of government for almost 2 full years, that strategy is pretty weak.
And this is where Trump’s ego comes back to bite him. Trump loves to be the center of attention. He dominates the media and that’s by design. But when that’s the kind of President you are, it becomes harder to shift the blame. The American people know exactly who’s in the driver’s seat, and that means they know exactly who’s crashing the car.
2. Hegseth's Culture War Is Gutting the Army
Yesterday, we told you about Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who resigned after taking his concerns about Hegseth straight to the President. Now the people who worked around him are explaining exactly what those concerns were.
CNN talked to multiple sources inside the Army, and the message was consistent: Hegseth is ripping away the Army’s ability to innovate and modernize by firing the very leaders responsible for it. That list now includes the Army Chief of Staff, the general in charge of transforming the force, and the general leading the Army’s adoption of drone warfare.
Our allies see what’s happening. One defense official in Europe told CNN that Hegseth’s memos about technology are a smokescreen. What he actually recognizes is a secretary consumed with image and culture fights.
And plenty of Americans see it too. Listen to how former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall describes the result.
A climate of fear, throughout the entire institution, in wartime. The Pentagon calls that reporting a “total fabrication.” But you know who else is worried? Republicans. Mike Rogers, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, told reporters, “I’m tired of all the churn.” Asked whether there’s a leadership vacuum at the Pentagon, he offered a one-word answer: “yes.”
Hegseth promised to restore the warrior ethos. Instead, he’s fired the warriors and frightened the rest, while the Army leads us through a war without a leader. At some point, the culture war becomes an all-consuming distraction from the real one. We’re beyond that point.
3. Lincoln Sailors Touch Land After 286 Days at Sea
The Lincoln pulled into port this morning. It left San Diego last November for a routine deployment, then the war started, and the Lincoln never came home. By the time it docked today, it had set a modern record for consecutive days at sea in combat, and when it finally returns to California later this year, it will have completed one of the longest deployments in the history of the United States Navy.
You know the conditions on board: Shortages of basic supplies. Deteriorating health among a crew of roughly 5,000. Severe mental duress.
CNN has reported serious morale problems and at least one possible suicide attempt. Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote to Pete Hegseth last month demanding answers about living conditions on the ship. And journalists at Stars and Stripes who reported on all of it got fired for their trouble. They’re suing.
The admiral commanding the strike group called the port call “a well-deserved opportunity for our sailors and Marines to rest and recharge.” Well-deserved is an understatement. As the crew lined up to disembark, a commanding officer came over the loudspeaker and told them: “I’m excited, as excited as you are.”
Now compare all of that to the man who sent them there. Here’s the President, asked about the conditions on the Lincoln, and whether this deployment has gone on too long.
Beautifully maintained. Not nearly long enough. Families of those sailors heard that. So did the sailors.
So to the sailors who are finally getting off that boat: Enjoy the shore leave. You earned it, even if the people who sent you can’t bring themselves to say so.
4. Trump Invites Russia to the G20 and Allies Walk
The U.S. is hosting the G20 finance ministers this week in Asheville, North Carolina. It was supposed to be a moment of unity. Instead, the story of the day was the invite sent to a very unwelcome guest: Russia’s finance minister, who hadn’t appeared in-person at a G20 gathering since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to the New York Times, the Trump administration invited him without notifying any of the other participants. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave him a one-on-one meeting. Our European allies were furious. Germany’s finance minister called the invitation a troubling signal and said of Russia’s war, “One cannot simply return to normality.” When it came time for the traditional group photo, the Europeans made clear they wouldn’t pose with Putin’s crony. The photo was taken without him. Bessent posed with him separately.
Here’s Trump explaining the decision in the Oval Office.
“We like getting along with everybody.” So just who is “everybody?” We don’t seem to be getting along with the allies who spent that summit fighting American tariffs. We’re definitely not getting along with Canada, our largest trading partner. So who are we getting along with? A warmongering Kremlin that’s still bombing Ukrainian civilians? The North Korean dictatorship? Those are certainly not the friends I want for America.
It’s the same pattern: we punish our friends and reward our adversaries. American leadership suffers. The free people of the world, and especially the Ukranians, suffer.
5. Texans Pack a Hearing to Defend Their Right to Vote
Tarrant County in Fort Worth is the third-largest county in Texas. It’s home to more than two million people. And it’s ground zero for a razor-tight Senate race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, an election that has increasingly worried the GOP.
Yesterday, the county’s Republican commissioners voted three to two along party lines to cut 92 polling locations compared to the 2022 midterms. That’s nearly a third of them. And they disproportionately impact poorer, marginalized communities.
The county claims it’s about saving money and low turnout. The GOP’s recent track record says otherwise: this is an attempt to deter voter turnout in the midterms, which has the potential to deliver Talarico a monumental victory.
The people of Tarrant County didn’t back down. For more than three hours, hundreds stood outside the courthouse and packed the hearing room. And they came to be heard. Listen to this:
One woman put it perfectly. “Making citizens jump through hoops to vote is the kind of cowardice engaged in by people who don’t think they can earn our votes.” That’s not just Tarrant County. That’s the whole GOP midterm playbook.
The party isn’t even trying to win on a message. Behind Trump, they don’t have one: they have failed to deliver on every promise to the American people. What’s the alternative? Instead of earning votes, Republicans have decided to discourage them by attacking mail-in ballots, by threatening enforcement at polling sites, or by removing them entirely.
Texas voters have had enough. Even though the Tarrant County protesters lost the vote, they won the argument. In a county decided by inches, winning the argument is what turns people out even in tough circumstances.
That is what the defense of democracy looks like. That is what gives me hope for the future of our freedom.
Some other stories that caught my eye:
Gov. Kathy Hochul and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani held a joint press conference Tuesday, accusing President Trump of shorting New York $87 million in counterterrorism funding he promised to restore. Last year, DHS cut $187 million from the state’s Homeland Security Grant Program. Trump posted in October that he would personally bring the money back, but only $100 million came through. A FEMA spokesperson fired back that New York is sitting on $300 million in unspent federal funds and asked why the state is demanding more money it hasn’t used. Hochul’s office says those funds are part of a routine three-year spending cycle. And the shortfall hits real things: bomb squads, hazmat teams, FDNY communications, and National Guard posts at transit hubs, all with the 25th anniversary of 9/11 just weeks away. The Trump administration’s decision to withhold funds comes just in time for ICE’s Operation Rotten Apples in New York City, which, according to the DHS, arrested more than 2,000 individuals.
Iran fired missiles and drones at American bases and Gulf neighbors this week, ending a monthlong lull in its six-month war with the United States. The retaliation came after U.S. strikes over the weekend hit Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz. One strike hit a home hosting a wedding in a coastal town, which killed four people and wounded at least 68, according to Iranian media. CENTCOM says Iran’s follow-up strikes targeted air defense sites, radar systems, and maritime assets across the region. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan all reported intercepting Iranian attacks. And amidst the retaliation, the strait that once carried a fifth of the world’s oil remains largely shut, with Brent crude up more than 30 percent since the war began. Iran’s economy is hurting, too: the country’s currency hit another record low on Wednesday. Trump recently posted that he could not care less whether Iran signs a deal, claiming he likes America’s position better now.
